DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.06.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84977650037
论文题名: Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada
作者: Razavi T. ; Switzman H. ; Arain A. ; Coulibaly P.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2016
卷: 13 起始页码: 43
结束页码: 63
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Downscaling
; Precipitation
; Temperature
; Trend
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projections were also analyzed using daily precipitation and temperature time series and their extreme indices, calculated from gridded daily observed climate data along with and projections from dynamically downscaled datasets of CanRCM4 and PRECIS, and the statistically downscaled CIMP5 ensemble. A bias correction technique was applied to all raw daily temperature and precipitation time series prior to calculation of the indices. All climate models predicted increasing trends for extreme temperature indices, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation (RX1day and RX5day), total wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT), very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), Summer Days (SU), and Tropical Nights (TR) and decreasing trend for Forest Days (FD) and Ice Days (ID) in 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s compared to present. CanRCM4 model did consistently project values in the upper range of the CMIP5 ensemble while the PRECIS ensemble was more in-line with the CMIP5 mean values. This difference may however be a function of different emission scenarios used. © 2016
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59016
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: McMaster University, Department of Civil Engineering, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; Ontario Climate Consortium/Toronto and Region Conservation, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; McMaster University, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Razavi T.,Switzman H.,Arain A.,et al. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada[J]. Climate Risk Management,2016-01-01,13