DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.01.004
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84960886911
论文题名: Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes
作者: Matthews T. ; Mullan D. ; Wilby R.L. ; Broderick C. ; Murphy C.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2016
卷: 11 起始页码: 37
结束页码: 52
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change communication
; CMIP5
; Extreme seasonal weather
; Irish climate change projections
; North Atlantic storminess
; Seasonal analogues
英文摘要: It is thought that direct personal experience of extreme weather events could result in greater public engagement and policy response to climate change. Based on this premise, we present a set of future climate scenarios for Ireland communicated in the context of recent, observed extremes. Specifically, we examine the changing likelihood of extreme seasonal conditions in the long-term observational record, and explore how frequently such extremes might occur in a changed Irish climate according to the latest model projections. Over the period (1900-2014) records suggest a greater than 50-fold increase in the likelihood of the warmest recorded summer (1995), whilst the likelihood of the wettest winter (1994/95) and driest summer (1995) has respectively doubled since 1850. The most severe end-of-century climate model projections suggest that summers as cool as 1995 may only occur once every ~7 years, whilst winters as wet as 1994/95 and summers as dry as 1995 may increase by factors of ~8 and ~10 respectively. Contrary to previous research, we find no evidence for increased wintertime storminess as the Irish climate warms, but caution that this conclusion may be an artefact of the metric employed. It is hoped that framing future climate scenarios in the context of extremes from living memory will help communicate the scale of the challenge climate change presents, and in so doing bridge the gap between climate scientists and wider society. © 2016 The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59032
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, United Kingdom; School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queen's University, Belfast, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Loughborough University, United Kingdom; Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units, Department of Geography, National University of Ireland, Maynooth, Ireland
Recommended Citation:
Matthews T.,Mullan D.,Wilby R.L.,et al. Past and future climate change in the context of memorable seasonal extremes[J]. Climate Risk Management,2016-01-01,11