globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2015.03.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929096042
论文题名:
A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae
作者: Jacobs J.; Moore S.K.; Kunkel K.E.; Sun L.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2015
卷: 8
起始页码: 16
结束页码: 27
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Alexandrium ; Climate change ; Harmful algal blooms ; Human health ; Modeling ; Vibrio
英文摘要: Climate change is expected to alter coastal ecosystems in ways which may have predictable consequences for the seasonality and geographical distribution of human pathogens and harmful algae. Here we demonstrate relatively simple approaches for evaluating the risk of occurrence of pathogenic bacteria in the genus Vibrio and outbreaks of toxin-producing harmful algae in the genus Alexandrium, with estimates of uncertainty, in U.S. coastal waters under future climate change scenarios through the end of the 21st century. One approach forces empirical models of growth, abundance and the probability of occurrence of the pathogens and algae at specific locations in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound with ensembles of statistically downscaled climate model projections to produce first order assessments of changes in seasonality. In all of the case studies examined, the seasonal window of occurrence for Vibrio and Alexandrium broadened, indicating longer annual periods of time when there is increased risk for outbreaks. A second approach uses climate model projections coupled with GIS to identify the potential for geographic range shifts for Vibrio spp. in the coastal waters of Alaska. These two approaches could be applied to other coastal pathogens that have climate sensitive drivers to investigate potential changes to the risk of outbreaks in both time (seasonality) and space (geographical distribution) under future climate change scenarios. © 2015 .
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59035
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Oxford, MD, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Joint Office for Science Support, Seattle, WA, United States; Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA, United States; Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, North Carolina State University and NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC, United States

Recommended Citation:
Jacobs J.,Moore S.K.,Kunkel K.E.,et al. A framework for examining climate-driven changes to the seasonality and geographical range of coastal pathogens and harmful algae[J]. Climate Risk Management,2015-01-01,8
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