| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50846
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| 论文题名: | On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation |
| 作者: | Love J.J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8642
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| EISSN: | 1944-8373
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:16 | | 起始页码: | 4171
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| 结束页码: | 4176
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | agriculture
; climate change
; economics
; geomagnetic activity
; history of science
; solar-terrestrial interaction
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| Scopus关键词: | Anticorrelation
; Frequency-domain methods
; Geomagnetic activities
; History of science
; Modulating effect
; Null hypothesis
; Random correlations
; solar-terrestrial interaction
; Agriculture
; Climate change
; Economics
; Frequency domain analysis
; Geomagnetism
; Costs
; agricultural history
; correlation
; data set
; economic analysis
; economic history
; geomagnetic field
; radiation balance
; solar cycle
; sunspot
; England
; London [England]
; United Kingdom
; United States
; Triticum aestivum
|
| 英文摘要: | We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data. Key Points Historical agricultural data are not significantly correlated with sunspots Historical wheat prices are not useful for inferring past sunspot numbers Sunspot numbers are not demonstrably useful for predicting future wheat prices © This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. Published in 2013 by the American Geophysical Union. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84883068676&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50846&partnerID=40&md5=d64fd4749e71b24b87a819fc782c69ff
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5906
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | USGS Geomagnetism Program, MS 966 DFC, Box 25046, Denver, CO 80225, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Love J.J.. On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(16).
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