DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2014.03.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84906736860
论文题名: A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes
作者: Kokic P. ; Crimp S. ; Howden M.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2014
卷: 3 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 12
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic climate change
; Bootstrap simulation
; Time series modelling
英文摘要: December 2013 was the 346th consecutive month where global land and ocean average surface temperature exceeded the 20th century monthly average, with February 1985 the last time mean temperature fell below this value. Even given these and other extraordinary statistics, public acceptance of human induced climate change and confidence in the supporting science has declined since 2007. The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are part of natural systems fluctuations remains a major stumbling block to effective adaptation action and risk management. Previous approaches to attribute change include qualitative expert-assessment approaches such as used in IPCC reports and use of 'fingerprinting' methods based on global climate models. Here we develop an alternative approach which provides a rigorous probabilistic statistical assessment of the link between observed climate changes and human activities in a way that can inform formal climate risk assessment. We construct and validate a time series model of anomalous global temperatures to June 2010, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other causal factors including solar radiation, volcanic forcing and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. When the effect of GHGs is removed, bootstrap simulation of the model reveals that there is less than a one in one hundred thousand chance of observing an unbroken sequence of 304. months (our analysis extends to June 2010) with mean surface temperature exceeding the 20th century average. We also show that one would expect a far greater number of short periods of falling global temperatures (as observed since 1998) if climate change was not occurring. This approach to assessing probabilities of human influence on global temperature could be transferred to other climate variables and extremes allowing enhanced formal risk assessment of climate change. © 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59084
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: CSIRO, CCI, GPO Box 664, ACT 2601, Australia; CSSM, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia; CSIRO, CES, GPO Box 1700, ACT 2601, Australia; CSIRO, CAF, GPO Box 1700, ACT 2601, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Kokic P.,Crimp S.,Howden M.. A probabilistic analysis of human influence on recent record global mean temperature changes[J]. Climate Risk Management,2014-01-01,3