globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.011
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85012255071
论文题名:
Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations
作者: Janská V.; Jiménez-Alfaro B.; Chytrý M.; Divíšek J.; Anenkhonov O.; Korolyuk A.; Lashchinskyi N.; Culek M.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2017
卷: 159
起始页码: 103
结束页码: 115
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Europe ; Last Glacial Maximum ; Modern analogues ; Palaeoecological reconstructions ; Siberia ; Species distribution modelling
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity ; Calibration ; Glacial geology ; Landforms ; Repair ; Uncertainty analysis ; Vegetation ; Wetlands ; Europe ; Last Glacial Maximum ; Modern analogues ; SIBERIA ; Species distribution modelling ; Climate models ; climate conditions ; ecological modeling ; fossil record ; Last Glacial Maximum ; paleoclimate ; paleoecology ; pollen ; proxy climate record ; reconstruction ; spatial distribution ; steppe ; vegetation type ; Europe ; Siberia
英文摘要: We modelled the European distribution of vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) using present-day data from Siberia, a region hypothesized to be a modern analogue of European glacial climate. Distribution models were calibrated with current climate using 6274 vegetation-plot records surveyed in Siberia. Out of 22 initially used vegetation types, good or moderately good models in terms of statistical validation and expert-based evaluation were computed for 18 types, which were then projected to European climate at the LGM. The resulting distributions were generally consistent with reconstructions based on pollen records and dynamic vegetation models. Spatial predictions were most reliable for steppe, forest-steppe, taiga, tundra, fens and bogs in eastern and central Europe, which had LGM climate more similar to present-day Siberia. The models for western and southern Europe, regions with a lower degree of climatic analogy, were only reliable for mires and steppe vegetation, respectively. Modelling LGM vegetation types for the wetter and warmer regions of Europe would therefore require gathering calibration data from outside Siberia. Our approach adds value to the reconstruction of vegetation at the LGM, which is limited by scarcity of pollen and macrofossil data, suggesting where specific habitats could have occurred. Despite the uncertainties of climatic extrapolations and the difficulty of validating the projections for vegetation types, the integration of palaeodistribution modelling with other approaches has a great potential for improving our understanding of biodiversity patterns during the LGM. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
资助项目: This study was supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project no. P504-11-0454). BJA was supported by the project Employment of Best Young Scientists for International Cooperation Empowerment (CZ.1.07/2.3.00/30.0037) co-financed from the European Social Fund and the state budget of the Czech Republic. The research of Russian partners was partly carried out within the projects supported by the Russian Federal Budget (VI.52.1.7 to OA, VI.52.1.4 to AK and NL). AK was additionally supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (project No. 16-05-00908).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59299
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Botany and Zoology, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Czech Republic; Geobotany and Botanical Garden, Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, Halle (Saale), Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, Leipzig, Germany; Institute of General and Experimental Biology, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sakhyanovoi 6, Ulan-Ude, Russian Federation; Central Siberian Botanical Garden, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Zolotodolinskya 101, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation

Recommended Citation:
Janská V.,Jiménez-Alfaro B.,Chytrý M.,et al. Palaeodistribution modelling of European vegetation types at the Last Glacial Maximum using modern analogues from Siberia: Prospects and limitations[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2017-01-01,159
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