globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.01.009
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85009977133
论文题名:
Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes
作者: Li J.; Dodson J.; Yan H.; Zhang D.D.; Zhang X.; Xu Q.; Lee H.F.; Pei Q.; Cheng B.; Li C.; Ni J.; Sun A.; Lu F.; Zong Y.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2017
卷: 159
起始页码: 35
结束页码: 46
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Chinese dynasties ; Climatic variability ; Northern China ; Pollen data
Scopus关键词: Ecology ; Solar energy ; Chinese dynasties ; Climatic fluctuations ; Climatic reconstruction ; Climatic variability ; Northern China ; Pollen data ; Redundancy analysis ; Temperature anomaly ; Repair ; ancestry ; climate modeling ; climate variation ; mathematical analysis ; monsoon ; paleoclimate ; palynology ; periodicity ; precipitation (climatology) ; quantitative analysis ; solar activity ; spatiotemporal analysis ; temperature ; China
英文摘要: Our understanding on the spatial-temporal patterns of climatic variability over the last few millennia in the East Asian monsoon-dominated northern China (NC), and its role at a macro-scale in affecting the prosperity and depression of Chinese dynasties is limited. Quantitative high-resolution, regionally-synthesized palaeoclimatic reconstructions as well as simulations, and numerical analyses of their relationships with various fine-scale, numerical agro-ecological, social-economic, and geo-political historical records during the period of China's history, are presented here for NC. We utilize pollen data together with climate modeling to reconstruct and simulate decadal- to centennial-scale variations in precipitation or temperature for NC during the last 2200 years (-200–2000 AD). We find an overall cyclic-pattern (wet/warm or dry/cold) in the precipitation and temperature anomalies on centennial- to millennial-scale that can be likely considered as a representative for the entire NC by comparison with other related climatic records. We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. We employ variation partitioning and redundancy analysis to quantify the independent effects of climatic factors on accounting for the total variation of 17 fine-grained numerical Chinese historical records. We quantitatively illustrate that precipitation (67.4%) may have been more important than temperature (32.5%) in causing the overall agro-ecological and macro-geopolitical shifts in imperial China with NC as the central ruling region and an agricultural heartland over the last 2200 years. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
资助项目: This work was financially funded by projects from the State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology in the Institute of Earth Environment of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y652001589 and Y651031589), the West Light Foundation of The Chinese Academy of Sciences (XAB2016B01), the gs3:National Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (41522305 and 41403018), the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) (2013CB955900), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (QYZDB-SSW-DQC001, 132B61KYSB20160003, and 55ZZBS1304101).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59303
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China; School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; Department of Geography and International Centre for China Development Study, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong; School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; Institute of Nihewan Archaeology, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, China; Department of Social Sciences, The Education University of Hong Kong, 10 Lo Ping Road, Tai Po, Hong Kong; College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China; State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, China; College of Chemistry and Life Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua, China; College of Earth Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19A Yuquan Rd, Shijingshan District, Beijing, China; Department of Earth Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, China

Recommended Citation:
Li J.,Dodson J.,Yan H.,et al. Quantifying climatic variability in monsoonal northern China over the last 2200 years and its role in driving Chinese dynastic changes[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2017-01-01,159
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