| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50835
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| 论文题名: | Are recent Arctic ozone losses caused by increasing greenhouse gases? |
| 作者: | Rieder H.E.; Polvani L.M.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8673
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| EISSN: | 1944-8404
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:16 | | 起始页码: | 4437
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| 结束页码: | 4441
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic
; greenhouse gases
; natural variability
; ozone loss
; volume of polar stratospheric clouds
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| Scopus关键词: | Arctic
; Arctic ozone loss
; Chemistry-climate models
; Natural variability
; Ozone loss
; Polar stratospheric clouds
; Probability densities
; Volume models
; Atmospherics
; Chemical analysis
; Climate change
; Ozone
; Probability density function
; Greenhouse gases
; climate change
; climate modeling
; cloud microphysics
; greenhouse gas
; ozone
; stratosphere
; volume
; Arctic
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| 英文摘要: | It has been suggested that the Arctic ozone losses observed in recent years might be a manifestation of climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases. We here offer evidence to the contrary, by focusing on the volume of polar stratospheric clouds (VPSC), a convenient proxy for polar ozone loss whose simplicity allows for easily reproducible results. First, we analyze the time series of VPSC in three reanalysis data sets and find no statistically significant trends in VPSC-nor changes in their probability density functions-over the period 1979-2011. Second, we analyze VPSC in a stratosphere-resolving chemistry-climate model forced uniquely with increasing greenhouse gases following the A1B scenario: here too, we find no significant changes in VPSC over the entire 21st century. Taken together, these results strongly suggest that the sporadic high ozone losses in recent years have not been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Key Points Reanalyses show no significant trends in Arctic polar stratospheric cloud volume Models forced solely with increasing greenhouse gases show no trends from 1960 to 2100 Recent Arctic ozone losses have not been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84883116789&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50835&partnerID=40&md5=cab141307037a22c86f30158e4da6e9a
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5937
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades NY 10964, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Rieder H.E.,Polvani L.M.. Are recent Arctic ozone losses caused by increasing greenhouse gases?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(16).
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