DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84979255858
论文题名: The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras
作者: Stahle D.W. ; Cook E.R. ; Burnette D.J. ; Villanueva J. ; Cerano J. ; Burns J.N. ; Griffin D. ; Cook B.I. ; Acuña R. ; Torbenson M.C.A. ; Sjezner P. ; Howard I.M.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2016
卷: 149 起始页码: 34
结束页码: 60
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate reconstruction
; Drought
; El Nino
; La Nina
; Mexico
; Palmer drought severity index
; Pluvial
; Social impacts
; Tree-ring chronologies
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Drought
; Earth (planet)
; Economic and social effects
; Forestry
; Moisture
; Oceanography
; Repair
; Soil moisture
; Surface waters
; Climate reconstruction
; EL Nino
; La nina
; Me-xico
; Palmer drought severity indices
; Pluvial
; Social impact
; Tree-ring chronologies
; Climate models
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate change
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; Holocene
; La Nina
; paleoclimate
; prehistoric
; reconstruction
; sea surface temperature
; social impact
; soil moisture
; teleconnection
; tree ring
; weather station
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; Caribbean Sea
; Federal District [Mexico]
; Mexico City
; Mexico [North America]
; North America
; Pacific Ocean
; Oryctolagus cuniculus
; Puffinus auricularis
英文摘要: Mexico has suffered a long history and prehistory of severe sustained drought. Drought over Mexico is modulated by ocean-atmospheric variability in the Atlantic and Pacific, raising the possibility for long-range seasonal climate forecasting, which could help mediate the economic and social impacts of future dry spells. The instrumental record of Mexican climate is very limited before 1920, but tree-ring chronologies developed from old-growth forests in Mexico can provide an excellent proxy representation of the spatial pattern and intensity of past moisture regimes useful for the analysis of climate dynamics and climate impacts. The Mexican Drought Atlas (MXDA) has been developed from an extensive network of 252 climate sensitive tree-ring chronologies in and near Mexico. The MXDA reconstructions extend from 1400 CE–2012 and were calibrated with the instrumental summer (JJA) self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude/longitude grid extending over land areas from 14 to 34°N and 75–120°W using Ensemble Point-by-Point Regression (EPPR) for the 1944–1984 period. The grid point reconstructions were validated for the period 1920–1943 against instrumental gridded scPDSI values based on the fewer weather station observations available during that interval. The MXDA provides a new spatial perspective on the historical impacts of moisture extremes over Mexico during the past 600-years, including the Aztec Drought of One Rabbit in 1454, the drought of El Año de Hambre in 1785–1786, and the drought that preceded the Mexican Revolution of 1909–1910. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important ocean-atmospheric forcing of moisture variability detected with the MXDA. In fact, the reconstructions suggest that the strongest central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) teleconnection to the soil moisture balance over North America may reside in northern Mexico. This ENSO signal has stronger and more time-stable correlations than computed for either the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The extended Multivariate ENSO Index is most highly correlated with reconstructed scPDSI over northern Mexico, where warm events favor moist conditions during the winter, spring, and early summer. This ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico has been strong over the past 150 years, but it has been comparatively weak and non-stationary in the MXDA over central and southern Mexico where eastern tropical Pacific and Caribbean/tropical Atlantic SSTs seem to be more important. The ENSO teleconnection to northern Mexico is weaker in the available instrumental PDSI, but analyses based on the millennium climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the moisture balance during the winter, spring, and early summer over northern Mexico may indeed be particularly sensitive to ENSO forcing. Nationwide drought is predicted to become more common with anthropogenic climate change, but the MXDA reconstructions indicate that intense “All Mexico” droughts have been rare over the past 600 years and their frequency does not appear to have increased substantially in recent decades. © 2016 资助项目: Funded by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers GEO/ATM-0753399, AGS-1266014, AGS-1266015, and AGS-1301587. Support was also provided by INIFAP, IAI, and WWF. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory contribution number 8038. We thank Mark Brenner, Rosalinda Cervantes Martinez, Malcolm Cleaveland, Art Douglas, Vicenta Constante Garcia, Eladio Cornejo Olviedo, Juan Estrada Avalos, Song Feng, Sarah Metcalfe, Susan Milbrath, Gene Paull, Daniel Stahle, Lorenzo Vazquez Salem, and Matthew Therrell for advice and assistance.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59461
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, United States; INIFAP: Centro Nacional de Investigacion Disciplinaria Relacion Agua-Suelo-Planta-Atmosfera, Lerdo, Mexico; The Nature Conservancy, Denver, CO, United States; Department of Geography, Environment, and Society, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stahle D.W.,Cook E.R.,Burnette D.J.,et al. The Mexican Drought Atlas: Tree-ring reconstructions of the soil moisture balance during the late pre-Hispanic, colonial, and modern eras[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2016-01-01,149