DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929427696
论文题名: Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time
作者: Vessella F. ; Simeone M.C. ; Schirone B.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2015
卷: 119 起始页码: 85
结束页码: 93
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; OpenModeller
; Palaeodistribution modelling
; Putative refugia
; Quercus suber
; Range dynamics
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Conservation
; Dynamics
; Ecology
; Glacial geology
; Conservation management
; Ecological niche modelling
; Environmental determinants
; Environmental variables
; Mediterranean vegetation
; OpenModeller
; Putative refugia
; Quercus
; Risk assessment
; bioclimatology
; conservation management
; ecological modeling
; evergreen tree
; fossil record
; Holocene
; keystone species
; Last Glacial Maximum
; Last Interglacial
; niche
; range expansion
; vegetation structure
; Mediterranean Sea
; Quercus suber
英文摘要: Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is widely used to depict species potential occurrence according to environmental variables under different climatic scenarios. We tested the ENM approach to infer past range dynamics of cork oak, a keystone species of the Mediterranean Biome, from 130ka to the present time. Hindcasting implications would deal with a better species risk assessment and conservation management for the future.We modelled present and past occurrence of cork oak using seven ENM algorithms, starting from 63,733 spatially unique presence points at 30 arc-second resolution. Fourteen environmental variables were used and four time slices were considered (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and present time). A threshold-independent evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated by means of ROC curve and fossil or historical evidences were used to validate the results.Four weighted average maps depicted the dynamics of area suitability for cork oak in the last 130ka. The derived species autoecology allowed its long-term occurrence in the Mediterranean without striking range reduction or shifting. Fossil and historical post-processing validation support the modelled past spatial extension and a neglected species presence at Levantine until the recent time.Despite the severe climatic oscillation since the Last Glacial Maximum, cork oak potential distribution area experienced limited range changes, confirming its strong link with the Mediterranean Basin. The ecological amplitude of Quercus suber could be therefore adopted as a reference to trace the Mediterranean bioclimate area. A better knowledge of the past events of Mediterranean vegetation, a wider range of study species and environmental determinants are essential to inform us about its current state, its sensitivity to human impact and the potential responses to future changes. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59921
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Dipartimento Ambiente, Foreste, Natura ed Energia (D.A.F.N.E.), Università degli Studi della Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Vessella F.,Simeone M.C.,Schirone B.. Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2015-01-01,119