| DOI: | 10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.008p
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84958213439
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| 论文题名: | Interglacial analogues of the Holocene and its natural near future |
| 作者: | Yin Q.; Berger A.
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| 刊名: | Quaternary Science Reviews
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| ISSN: | 2773791
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 120 | | 起始页码: | 28
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| 结束页码: | 46
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Astronomical theory of paleoclimates
; Climate analogue
; CO2
; Insolation
; Interglacials
; Paleoclimate modelling
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric composition
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Incident solar radiation
; Solar radiation
; Annual mean temperatures
; Anthropogenic warming
; Climate analogue
; Interglacials
; Paleoclimate modelling
; Paleoclimates
; Transient experiments
; Transient simulation
; Carbon dioxide
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| 英文摘要: | In an attempt to find potential interglacial analogues of our present interglacial and its natural future, five interglacials (MIS-1, 5, 9, 11 and 19) are studied in terms of their astronomical characteristics, greenhouse gases concentration and climate simulated using both snapshot and transient experiments. Transient simulations covering a full range of obliquity, precession and eccentricity allow to develop an OPE index to estimate the climate sensitivity to astronomical forcing. They also show that obliquity and precession have different weight on the annual mean temperature and precipitation of different latitudinal zones, leading to varying phasing of these climate variables between different latitudes. However, the variations in boreal summer temperature of different latitudes (except the Southern Ocean) are in phase and are dominated by precession. All the interglacials are shown to be warmer than the natural climate of the present day and of the next centuries during boreal summer and for the annual mean temperature with varying duration and intensity. Such warming is mainly caused by changes in insolation, unlike the present global warming which mainly results from anthropogenic CO2 increase. The exceptionally long duration of MIS-11 is confirmed by our simulations, and it is demonstrated to be related to the long-lasting low eccentricity and high CO2 concentration and to the anti-phase relationship between obliquity maximum and precession minimum during MIS-11. As far as the variations of annual and seasonal temperatures are concerned, both snapshot and transient simulations show that MIS-19 is the best analogue of the present interglacial. MIS-11 is also a decent analogue when the impact of insolation alone is considered, but it is warmer than MIS-when the impact of CO2 is additionally included. Due to the large amplitude in the variations of insolation, MIS-and MIS-can hardly be considered as an analogue of the natural present-day climate and of its near future, but such warm climates could be, at least partly, considered as analogues of the future man-made warm climate. Although their astronomical forcing is different from the future and their CO2 concentration is much lower, the past interglacials have similarities to the anthropogenic warming in terms of climate feedbacks at the regional scale. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60081
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Georges Lemaître Center for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Yin Q.,Berger A.. Interglacial analogues of the Holocene and its natural near future[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2015-01-01,120
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