DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2014.09.032
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84908225269
论文题名: A reassessment of the impact of drought cycles on the Classic Maya
作者: Carleton W. ; Campbell D. ; Collard M.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2014
卷: 105 起始页码: 151
结束页码: 161
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Classic Maya collapse
; Drought
; Human-environment interaction
; Interpolation
; Radiocarbon calibration error
; Time series analysis
Scopus关键词: Interpolation
; Time series analysis
; Classic Maya collapse
; Drought cycles
; Human-environment interaction
; Radiocarbon calibration
; Drought
; assessment method
; calibration
; data set
; drought stress
; interpolation
; numerical model
; radiocarbon dating
; time series analysis
; Lake Chichancanab
; Mexico [North America]
; Quintana Roo
; Yucatan Peninsula
英文摘要: The study reported here challenges the widely discussed hypothesis that cyclical droughts had a major impact on the Classic Maya. This hypothesis was developed by Hodell etal. (2001, 2005) on the basis of the results of time series analyses of cores from Lake Chichancanab in the Yucatán peninsula. Hodell etal.'s analyses indicated that the Maya region was affected by two drought cycles during the 1st millennium CE, one with a periodicity of 208 years and another with a periodicity of 50 years. The timing of the droughts was such, Hodell etal. argued, that they were likely responsible for several important sociopolitical events, including the collapse of Classic Maya society. In our study, we investigated two potentially important problems with Hodell etal.'s analyses: their use of interpolation to make their data regularly spaced, and their reliance on radiocarbon point estimates to generate age-depth models. We found that interpolation biased Hodell etal.'s results and that when it is avoided there is no evidence for a 208-year drought cycle in the Lake Chichancanab dataset. We also found that when the errors associated with the relevant radiocarbon dates are taken into account, there is no evidence for any drought cycles in the Lake Chichancanab dataset. Together, our analyses indicate that both the 208-year drought cycle and the 50-year drought cycle identified by Hodell etal. are methodological artifacts. The corollary of this is that the drought cycle hypothesis lacks an empirical basis and needs to be treated with skepticism. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60116
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Human Evolutionary Studies Program and Department of Archaeology, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, Canada; Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, Canada; Department of Archaeology, University of Aberdeen, St Mary's Building, Elphinstone Road, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Carleton W.,Campbell D.,Collard M.. A reassessment of the impact of drought cycles on the Classic Maya[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2014-01-01,105