DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.11.002
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84888018673
论文题名: Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300
作者: Horton B.P. ; Rahmstorf S. ; Engelhart S.E. ; Kemp A.C.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2014
卷: 84 起始页码: 1
结束页码: 6
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Expert elicitation
; IPCC
; Survey
Scopus关键词: Climate mitigations
; Complex Processes
; Expert assessment
; Expert elicitation
; Feedback mechanisms
; Global sea-level rise
; IPCC
; Probabilistic assessments
; Surveying
; Surveys
; Sea level
; coastal zone
; expert system
; feedback mechanism
; forecasting method
; future prospect
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; paleoceanography
; paleoclimate
; sea level change
; warming
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Large uncertainty surrounds projections of global sea-level rise, resulting from uncertainty about future warming and an incomplete understanding of the complex processes and feedback mechanisms that cause sea level to rise. Consequently, existing models produce widely differing predictions of sea-level rise even for the same temperature scenario. Here we present results of a broad survey of 90 experts who were amongst the most active scientific publishers on the topic of sea level in recent years. They provided a probabilistic assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300 under two contrasting temperature scenarios. For the low scenario, which limits warming to <2°C above pre-industrial temperature and has slowly falling temperature after AD 2050, the median 'likely' range provided by the experts is 0.4-0.6m by AD 2100 and 0.6-1.0m by AD 2300, suggesting a good chance to limit future sea-level rise to <1.0m if climate mitigation measures are successfully implemented. In contrast, for the high warming scenario (4.5°C by AD 2100 and 8°C in AD 2300) the median likely ranges are 0.7-1.2m by AD 2100 and 2.0-3.0m by AD 2300, calling into question the future survival of some coastal cities and low-lying island nations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60408
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Division of Earth Sciences and Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Department of Geosciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI 02881, United States; Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155, United States
Recommended Citation:
Horton B.P.,Rahmstorf S.,Engelhart S.E.,et al. Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2014-01-01,84