globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2012.12.014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84872545667
论文题名:
Quantitative reconstructions in palaeolimnology: New paradigm or sick science?
作者: Juggins S.
刊名: Quaternary Science Reviews
ISSN: 2773791
出版年: 2013
卷: 64
起始页码: 20
结束页码: 32
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Quantitative reconstructions ; Secondary variables ; Training sets ; Transfer functions ; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Ecological factors ; Environmental variables ; Palaeolimnology ; Predictive power ; Secondary variables ; Simulated trainings ; Space and time ; Summer temperature ; Training sets ; Uncertainty ; Water depth ; Geology ; Natural sciences ; Transfer functions ; Repair ; diatom ; experimental study ; paleoclimate ; paleoecology ; paleolimnology ; paradigm shift ; quantitative analysis ; reconstruction ; spatiotemporal analysis ; transfer function ; uncertainty analysis ; Bacillariophyta
英文摘要: Quantitative reconstructions from biological proxies have revolutionised palaeolimnology but the methodology is not without problems. The most important of these result from attempts to reconstruct non-causal environmental variables and from the effects of secondary variables. Non-causal variables act as surrogates for often unknown or unquantified ecological factors and the method assumes that these relationships are invariant in space and time. This assumption is almost never met and examples of diatom models for water depth and summer temperature demonstrate how violation leads to spurious and misleading reconstructions. In addition, comparison of published species optima indicate that a number of models have little or no predictive power outside their current spatial setting. Finally, experiments using simulated training sets of known properties demonstrate how changes in secondary "nuisance" variables can lead to large, consistent, and interpretable trends in a reconstruction that are completely spurious and independent of any real change in the reconstructed variable. These problems pervade many quantitative reconstructions in palaeolimnology and other disciplines. Palaeoecologists must give greater attention to what can and cannot be reconstructed and explicitly address the dangers of reconstructing surrogate and confounded variables if our reconstructions are to remain credible. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60699
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作者单位: School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Claremont Road, Newcastle-Upon-Tyne NE1 7RU, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Juggins S.. Quantitative reconstructions in palaeolimnology: New paradigm or sick science?[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2013-01-01,64
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