globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13541
论文题名:
Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges
作者: Sánchez-Salguero R.; Camarero J.J.; Gutiérrez E.; González Rouco F.; Gazol A.; Sangüesa-Barreda G.; Andreu-Hayles L.; Linares J.C.; Seftigen K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:7
起始页码: 2705
结束页码: 2719
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Abies alba ; climate change ; dendroecology ; emission scenarios ; forward growth model ; Pinus sylvestris ; Pinus uncinata ; Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite model
Scopus关键词: Abies ; Abies alba ; Pinus mugo ; Pinus sylvestris ; Pinus uncinata
英文摘要: Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov–Shashkin-Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of −10.7% and −16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We acknowledge the use of the E-OBS climate dataset (EU-project ENSEMBLES) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu) and thank Dr. Geert Jan van Oldenborgh for his assistance. We also thank A. Hevia for help with statistical models. This study was supported by projects 387/2011 (OAPN, Spanish Ministry of Environment), CGL2011-26654 and CGL2015-69186-C2-1-R (Spanish Ministry of Economy). A. Gazol is supported by a Postdoctoral grant (MINECO-FPDI 2013-16600, FEDER funds). RSS and JCL were supported by the project CoMo-ReAdapt (CGL2013-48843-C2-1-R) and a postdoctoral fellowship to RSS (FEDER-Junta de Andalucía). We thank useful comments provided by D. Frank, the editor and three anonymous reviewers. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60898
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain; Departamento de Sistemas Físicos, Químicos y Naturales, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain; Department d’ Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Departamento de Astrofísica y CC. de la Atmósfera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Tree-Ring Laboratory, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain; Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Sánchez-Salguero R.,Camarero J.J.,Gutiérrez E.,et al. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(7)
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