globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13597
论文题名:
Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization
作者: Gea-Izquierdo G.; Nicault A.; Battipaglia G.; Dorado-Liñán I.; Gutiérrez E.; Ribas M.; Guiot J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:7
起始页码: 2915
结束页码: 2927
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon fertilization ; climate change ; dendroecology ; forest dynamics ; MAIDEN ; process-based models ; water stress
Scopus关键词: Coniferophyta
英文摘要: Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO2] (ca) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process-based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010–2100 for the high-emission RCP8.5 and low-emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected ca; (ii) constant ca = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate-driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing ca, enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long-term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non-negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing ca and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss-performance at high ca above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario but be vulnerable to a climate warmer than +2 °C unless the trees developed an exaggerated fertilization response to [CO2]. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: This study was funded by project AGL2014-61175-JIN of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, by the Labex OT-Med (no ANR-11-LABEX-0061) from the ‘Investissements d'Avenir’ program of the French National Research Agency through the A*MIDEX project (no ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02) and by the ECCOREV consortium (FR 3098). The climate simulations have been extracted from the CMIP5 site (https://esgf-index1.ceda.ac.uk/projects/esgf-ceda/) and processed with the help of Romain Suarez.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60900
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: INIA-CIFOR, Ctra. La Coruña km. 7.5, Madrid, Spain; Aix-Marseille Université/CNRS/IRD, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France; Aix-Marseille Université/CNRS FR 3098 ECCOREV, Aix-en-Provence, France; Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, Second University of Naples, Via Vivaldi, Caserta, Italy; Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (PALECO EPHE), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, University of Montpellier 2, Montpellier, France; Departament d'Ecologia, Universitat de Barcelona, Avda. Diagonal 643, Barcelona, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Gea-Izquierdo G.,Nicault A.,Battipaglia G.,et al. Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(7)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Gea-Izquierdo G.]'s Articles
[Nicault A.]'s Articles
[Battipaglia G.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Gea-Izquierdo G.]'s Articles
[Nicault A.]'s Articles
[Battipaglia G.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Gea-Izquierdo G.]‘s Articles
[Nicault A.]‘s Articles
[Battipaglia G.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.