globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13530
论文题名:
Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures
作者: Asseng S.; Cammarano D.; Basso B.; Chung U.; Alderman P.D.; Sonder K.; Reynolds M.; Lobell D.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:6
起始页码: 2464
结束页码: 2472
语种: 英语
英文关键词: food security ; irrigated spring wheat ; poverty ; temperature increase ; yield impact
Scopus关键词: Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Many of the irrigated spring wheat regions in the world are also regions with high poverty. The impacts of temperature increase on wheat yield in regions of high poverty are uncertain. A grain yield–temperature response function combined with a quantification of model uncertainty was constructed using a multimodel ensemble from two key irrigated spring wheat areas (India and Sudan) and applied to all irrigated spring wheat regions in the world. Southern Indian and southern Pakistani wheat-growing regions with large yield reductions from increasing temperatures coincided with high poverty headcounts, indicating these areas as future food security ‘hot spots’. The multimodel simulations produced a linear absolute decline of yields with increasing temperature, with uncertainty varying with reference temperature at a location. As a consequence of the linear absolute yield decline, the relative yield reductions are larger in low-yielding environments (e.g., high reference temperature areas in southern India, southern Pakistan and all Sudan wheat-growing regions) and farmers in these regions will be hit hardest by increasing temperatures. However, as absolute yield declines are about the same in low- and high-yielding regions, the contributed deficit to national production caused by increasing temperatures is higher in high-yielding environments (e.g., northern India) because these environments contribute more to national wheat production. Although Sudan could potentially grow more wheat if irrigation is available, grain yields would be low due to high reference temperatures, with future increases in temperature further limiting production. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60921
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Department of Geological Sciences and WK Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States; International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Apdo. Postal 6-641, Mexico City, Mexico; Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, United Kingdom; APEC Climate Center, 12, Centum 7-ro, Haeundae-gu Busan, South Korea; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Oklahoma State University, 371 Agricultural Hall, Stillwater, OK, United States

Recommended Citation:
Asseng S.,Cammarano D.,Basso B.,et al. Hot spots of wheat yield decline with rising temperatures[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(6)
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