DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13544
论文题名: Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions
作者: Liang S. ; Hurteau M.D. ; Westerling A.L.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 5 起始页码: 2016
结束页码: 2030
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon
; climate change
; forest community change
; LANDIS-II
; Sierra Nevada
; wildfire
英文摘要: Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate–wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium–high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Hurteau, M.D.
; Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, MSC03 2020, United States
; 电子邮件: mhurteau@unm.edu
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60954
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Intercollege Graduate Degree Program in Ecology and Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, The Pennsylvania State University, 228 Forest Resources Building, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, MSC03 2020, Albuquerque, NM, United States; Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, 5200 N. Lake Road, Merced, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liang S.,Hurteau M.D.,Westerling A.L.. Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate–wildfire interactions[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(5)