DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13570
论文题名: Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America
作者: Case M.J. ; Lawler J.J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 5 起始页码: 2005
结束页码: 2015
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; correlative
; DGVM
; niche model
; northwestern North America
; process-based
; species distribution model
; species range
英文摘要: Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species-specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate-driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over-predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Case, M.J.
; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, United States
; 电子邮件: mcase@uw.edu
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60974
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Case M.J.,Lawler J.J.. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(5)