globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13519
论文题名:
High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise
作者: Field C.R.; Bayard T.S.; Gjerdrum C.; Hill J.M.; Meiman S.; Elphick C.S.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:5
起始页码: 2058
结束页码: 2070
语种: 英语
英文关键词: extinction threshold ; population viability ; saltmarsh sparrow ; sea-level rise ; tidal marsh ; tide projection
Scopus关键词: Ammodramus caudacutus ; Passeri ; Passeridae
英文摘要: Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: Field, C.R. ; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Conservation and Biodiversity, and Institute of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, 75 N. Eagleville Road, Unit 3043, United States ; 电子邮件: christopher.field@uconn.edu
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/60982
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for Conservation and Biodiversity, and Institute of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, 75 N. Eagleville Road, Unit 3043, Storrs, CT, United States; Audubon Washington, 5902 Lake Washington Blvd. S, Seattle, WA, United States; Environment and Climate Change Canada, 45 Alderney Drive, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; Vermont Center for Ecostudies, PO Box 420, Norwich, VT, United States; Institute for Wildlife Studies, 2327 Kettner Boulevard, San Diego, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Field C.R.,Bayard T.S.,Gjerdrum C.,et al. High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(5)
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