DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13593
论文题名: The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change
作者: Cheal A.J. ; MacNeil M.A. ; Emslie M.J. ; Sweatman H.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 4 起始页码: 1511
结束页码: 1524
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; coral cover
; coral reefs
; cyclone intensity
; cyclones
; ecosystem vulnerability
; recovery
; reef fish
; species richness
Scopus关键词: Anthozoa
英文摘要: Ocean warming under climate change threatens coral reefs directly, through fatal heat stress to corals and indirectly, by boosting the energy of cyclones that cause coral destruction and loss of associated organisms. Although cyclone frequency is unlikely to rise, cyclone intensity is predicted to increase globally, causing more frequent occurrences of the most destructive cyclones with potentially severe consequences for coral reef ecosystems. While increasing heat stress is considered a pervasive risk to coral reefs, quantitative estimates of threats from cyclone intensification are lacking due to limited data on cyclone impacts to inform projections. Here, using extensive data from Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), we show that increases in cyclone intensity predicted for this century are sufficient to greatly accelerate coral reef degradation. Coral losses on the outer GBR were small, localized and offset by gains on undisturbed reefs for more than a decade, despite numerous cyclones and periods of record heat stress, until three unusually intense cyclones over 5 years drove coral cover to record lows over >1500 km. Ecological damage was particularly severe in the central-southern region where 68% of coral cover was destroyed over >1000 km, forcing record declines in the species richness and abundance of associated fish communities, with many local extirpations. Four years later, recovery of average coral cover was relatively slow and there were further declines in fish species richness and abundance. Slow recovery of community diversity appears likely from such a degraded starting point. Highly unusual characteristics of two of the cyclones, aside from high intensity, inflated the extent of severe ecological damage that would more typically have occurred over 100s of km. Modelling published predictions of future cyclone activity, the likelihood of more intense cyclones within time frames of coral recovery by mid-century poses a global threat to coral reefs and dependent societies. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61004
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB No.3, Townsville, QLD, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Cheal A.J.,MacNeil M.A.,Emslie M.J.,et al. The threat to coral reefs from more intense cyclones under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(4)