DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13462
论文题名: Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change
作者: Hansen G.J.A. ; Read J.S. ; Hansen J.F. ; Winslow L.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 4 起始页码: 1463
结束页码: 1476
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate projections
; community composition
; largemouth bass
; Micropterus salmoides
; Sander vitreus
; species distribution model
; temperate lakes
; thermal profiles
; walleye
Scopus关键词: Micropterus
; Micropterus salmoides
; Sander vitreus
; Stizostedion vitreum
英文摘要: Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater fish species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declining walleye and increasing largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and management actions for these species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake-specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2148 lakes in Wisconsin, US, under contemporary (1989–2014) and future (2040–2064 and 2065–2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake-specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. Walleye recruitment success was negatively related and largemouth bass abundance was positively related to water temperature degree days. Both species exhibited a threshold response at the same degree day value, albeit in opposite directions. Degree days were predicted to increase in the future, although the magnitude of increase varied among lakes, time periods, and global circulation models (GCMs). Under future conditions, we predicted a loss of walleye recruitment in 33–75% of lakes where recruitment is currently supported and a 27–60% increase in the number of lakes suitable for high largemouth bass abundance. The percentage of lakes capable of supporting abundant largemouth bass but failed walleye recruitment was predicted to increase from 58% in contemporary conditions to 86% by mid-century and to 91% of lakes by late century, based on median projections across GCMs. Conversely, the percentage of lakes with successful walleye recruitment and low largemouth bass abundance was predicted to decline from 9% of lakes in contemporary conditions to only 1% of lakes in both future periods. Importantly, we identify up to 85 resilient lakes predicted to continue to support natural walleye recruitment. Management resources could target preserving these resilient walleye populations. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. 资助项目: Hansen, G.J.A.
; Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 500 Lafayette Road, United States
; 电子邮件: Gretchen.hansen@state.mn.us
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61007
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 2801 Progress Road, Madison, WI, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Office of Water Information, 8505 Research Way, Middleton, WI, United States; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 101 S Webster Street, Middleton, WI, United States; Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 500 Lafayette Road, St. Paul, MN, United States; Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, 1200 Warner Road, St. Paul, MN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hansen G.J.A.,Read J.S.,Hansen J.F.,et al. Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(4)