DOI: 10.1002/grl.50585
论文题名: Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre
作者: Wouters B. ; Hazeleger W. ; Drijfhout S. ; Van Oldenborgh G.J. ; Guemas V.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8836
EISSN: 1944-8567
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 12 起始页码: 3080
结束页码: 3084
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate model
; idecadal predictability
; ocean dynamics
; subpolar gyre
Scopus关键词: idecadal predictability
; Ocean dynamics
; Ocean observations
; Persistence models
; Real world experiment
; Salinity variations
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Subpolar gyres
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Ocean currents
; Dynamics
; Argo
; climate modeling
; decadal variation
; experimental study
; gyre
; hindcasting
; oceanic current
; prediction
; salinity
; sea surface temperature
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: In decadal predictability studies, the subpolar Atlantic stands out as a region of high potential and real predictability. Since local temperature and salinity variations in the region are for a large part controlled by ocean dynamics, skillful predictability of the local ocean dynamics is a prerequisite to obtain multiyear predictability of other variables such as sea surface temperature. In this study, we discuss the predictability of the main ocean current system in the region, the subpolar gyre. From perfect model hindcasts exploiting initial condition information only from realistic ocean observation locations, we find that predictability is increased when Argo subsurface data are included. In our real-world experiments with initialized hindcasts, the observed decline in subpolar gyre strength of the mid-1990s is reproduced well and we find predictability of the subpolar gyre up to 2 years ahead, comparable to the skill of a damped persistence model. Key Points The subpolar gyre strength is predicable up to 2 yr ahead Including ARGO measurements increases predictability Predictability due to initialization, not externally forceds ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880545220&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50585&partnerID=40&md5=fa104f715be02dc778fb20ef1e3ad81e
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6100
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Wilhelminalaan 10, 3732 GK De Bilt, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Wouters B.,Hazeleger W.,Drijfhout S.,et al. Multiyear predictability of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(12).