globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13538
论文题名:
Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins
作者: Abadi F.; Barbraud C.; Gimenez O.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:3
起始页码: 1353
结束页码: 1359
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian ; climate change ; emperor penguins ; integrated population model ; sea ice concentration ; southern annular mode ; survival
Scopus关键词: Aptenodytes forsteri
英文摘要: Early-life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture–recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971–1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large-scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We thank all the people involved in the data collection and D. Besson and K. Delord for their help in data management. The Ethics Committee of Institut Polaire Français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV) approved all field procedures. The present work was financially and logistically supported by IPEV (program 109: resp. H. Weimerskirch), Zone Atelier Antarctique (INEE-CNRS), and Terres Australes et Antarctiques. Françaises.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61019
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作者单位: School of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier – EPHE, 1919 Route de Mende, Montpellier, France; Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR7372 CNRS/Univ La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, France

Recommended Citation:
Abadi F.,Barbraud C.,Gimenez O.. Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(3)
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