globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13429
论文题名:
Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change
作者: Ash J.D.; Givnish T.J.; Waller D.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:3
起始页码: 1305
结束页码: 1315
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate analog ; forest understory ; functional traits ; geographic centroid ; migratory lag
英文摘要: Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species’ shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species’ traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: The NSF Dimensions of Biodiversity Program provided essential funding for this work (DEB-1046355). C. Kucharik, D. Rogers, D. Li, G. Sonnier, and B. Alverson generously shared data for the analyses. We also thank P. de Frenne, S. Hotchkiss, A. Paulson, and J. Williams for closely reading an earlier version of the manuscript. The manuscript benefited greatly from comments provided by anonymous reviewers. DMW thanks I. Olivieri, O. Ronce, the LABex program, and ISEM for support during his sabbatical stay at the University of Montpellier, France.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61035
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ash J.D.,Givnish T.J.,Waller D.M.. Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(3)
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