globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13404
论文题名:
Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds
作者: Wauchope H.S.; Shaw J.D.; Varpe Ø.; Lappo E.G.; Boertmann D.; Lanctot R.B.; Fuller R.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:3
起始页码: 1085
结束页码: 1094
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Beringia ; flyway ; maxent ; mid-Holocene ; protected areas ; shorebirds ; species distribution modelling ; waders
Scopus关键词: Aves ; Scolopacidae
英文摘要: Millions of birds migrate to and from the Arctic each year, but rapid climate change in the High North could strongly affect where species are able to breed, disrupting migratory connections globally. We modelled the climatically suitable breeding conditions of 24 Arctic specialist shorebirds and projected them to 2070 and to the mid-Holocene climatic optimum, the world's last major warming event ~6000 years ago. We show that climatically suitable breeding conditions could shift, contract and decline over the next 70 years, with 66–83% of species losing the majority of currently suitable area. This exceeds, in rate and magnitude, the impact of the mid-Holocene climatic optimum. Suitable climatic conditions are predicted to decline acutely in the most species rich region, Beringia (western Alaska and eastern Russia), and become concentrated in the Eurasian and Canadian Arctic islands. These predicted spatial shifts of breeding grounds could affect the species composition of the world's major flyways. Encouragingly, protected area coverage of current and future climatically suitable breeding conditions generally meets target levels; however, there is a lack of protected areas within the Canadian Arctic where resource exploitation is a growing threat. Given that already there are rapid declines of many populations of Arctic migratory birds, our results emphasize the urgency of mitigating climate change and protecting Arctic biodiversity. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We thank Jasmine Lee, Hugh Possingham, Danielle Shanahan, Pavel Tomkovich, Marty Wauchope and three anonymous reviewers for comment and discussion, as well as Jeff Hanson, Emily Packer and Claire Runge for technical assistance. The work was funded through ARC Linkage Project LP150101059 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups (Table S2) for making available their model output.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61038
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Longyearbyen, Norway; Akvaplan-niva, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway; Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetny pereulok 29, Moscow, Russian Federation; Institute of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark; Migratory Bird Management Division, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wauchope H.S.,Shaw J.D.,Varpe Ø.,et al. Rapid climate-driven loss of breeding habitat for Arctic migratory birds[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(3)
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