globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13440
论文题名:
An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century
作者: Mathys A.S.; Coops N.C.; Waring R.H.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期:2
起始页码: 920
结束页码: 932
语种: 英语
英文关键词: 3-PG model ; climate change ; ecoregion ; species distribution model ; species vulnerability
英文摘要: Forest ecosystems across western North America will likely see shifts in both tree species dominance and composition over the rest of this century in response to climate change. Our objective in this study was to identify which ecological regions might expect the greatest changes to occur. We used the process-based growth model 3-PG, to provide estimates of tree species responses to changes in environmental conditions and to evaluate the extent that species are resilient to shifts in climate over the rest of this century. We assessed the vulnerability of 20 tree species in western North America using the Canadian global circulation model under three different emission scenarios. We provided detailed projections of species shifts by including soil maps that account for the spatial variation in soil water availability and soil fertility as well as by utilizing annual climate projections of monthly changes in air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit and frost at a spatial resolution of one km. Projected suitable areas for tree species were compared to their current ranges based on observations at >40 000 field survey plots. Tree species were classified as vulnerable if environmental conditions projected in the future appear outside that of their current distribution ≥70% of the time. We added a migration constraint that limits species dispersal to <200 m yr−1 to provide more realistic projections on species distributions. Based on these combinations of constraints, we predicted the greatest changes in the distribution of dominant tree species to occur within the Northwest Forested Mountains and the highest number of tree species stressed will likely be in the North American Deserts. Projected climatic changes appear especially unfavorable for species in the subalpine zone, where major shifts in composition may lead to the emergence of new forest types. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: We appreciate the support of a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) grant NNX11A029G provided by the Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting program to Waring, as well as a Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) Discovery Grant to Coops and an NSERC CGS to Mathys. We are thankful to Dr. Robbie Hember from the University of British Columbia for providing solar radiation data and Dr. Thomas Hilker from Oregon State University for his contribution in processing the climate data. We also acknowledge Dr. Todd Schroeder, Dr. Andreas Hamann and the Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development for providing species plots data in the United States and Canada. We thank Dave Williams for editorial assistance and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments. The tree species models are available online at: www.databasin.com. Details on the 3-PG model can be found at http://3pg.forestry.ubc.ca/.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61056
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Forest Resource Management, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada; College of Forestry, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States

Recommended Citation:
Mathys A.S.,Coops N.C.,Waring R.H.. An ecoregion assessment of projected tree species vulnerabilities in western North America through the 21st century[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(2)
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