DOI: 10.1002/grl.50628
论文题名: Atmospheric annular modes in simulations over the past millennium: No long-term response to external forcing
作者: Gõmez-Navarro J.J. ; Zorita E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8843
EISSN: 1944-8574
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 12 起始页码: 3232
结束页码: 3236
语种: 英语
英文关键词: annular modes
; external forcing
; global circulation models
; internal variability
Scopus关键词: annular modes
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Atmospheric circulation
; Atmospheric circulation patterns
; External forcing
; Global circulation model
; Internal variability
; Response to external forcing
; Frequency bands
; Meteorology
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric dynamics
; atmospheric forcing
; circulation modeling
; climate modeling
; paleoatmosphere
; twentieth century
英文摘要: This study analyzes whether the imprint of external forcings can be detected in the long-term evolution of the main atmospheric circulation patterns in climate simulations over the last millennium. The external forcing is not found to significantly add variability in any frequency band compared to control simulations where the external drivers are kept constant. Additionally, a method designed to detect a common signal in the time evolution of these circulation patterns among all simulations is proposed, and employed to demonstrate that the null hypothesis of an evolution dominated by internal variability cannot be rejected regardless of the time smoothing applied to the series. Given that the fingerprint of external forcings on atmospheric circulation has been successfully detected in simulations of the 20th century climate and in future climate change projections, we argue that either the effect of past natural forcing is too small, state-of-the-art climate models underestimate their climate sensitivity, or the anthropogenic forcing qualitatively differs from the natural forcing in its effect on main circulation patterns. Key Points Internal variability drives evolution of annular modes over last millennium Variance is spread among all frequency bands in control and forced simulations External factors do not significantly drive the simulated atmospheric dynamic ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880516571&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50628&partnerID=40&md5=544d7b26169488f1fb118ae7438f877a
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6107
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Coastal Research Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Gõmez-Navarro J.J.,Zorita E.. Atmospheric annular modes in simulations over the past millennium: No long-term response to external forcing[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(12).