DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13386
论文题名: Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community
作者: Mulder C.P.H. ; Iles D.T. ; Rockwell R.F.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 2 起始页码: 801
结束页码: 814
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Cape Churchill Peninsula
; climate change
; flower preformation
; Hudson Bay lowlands
; nonlinear responses
; plant flowering phenology
; saltmarsh
; tundra
Scopus关键词: Magnoliophyta
英文摘要: Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log-linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below-average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above-average temperatures, the long-term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early-flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late-flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61082
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Biology and Wildlife, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Department of Wildland Resources, Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States; Department of Ornithology, Division of Vertebrate Zoology, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mulder C.P.H.,Iles D.T.,Rockwell R.F.. Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(2)