DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13343
论文题名: Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming
作者: Maclean I.M.D. ; Suggitt A.J. ; Wilson R.J. ; Duffy J.P. ; Bennie J.J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 1 起始页码: 256
结束页码: 268
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; cryptic refugia
; landscape
; microclimate
; microrefugia
; species distributions
; topoclimate
Scopus关键词: climate change
; cloud cover
; global warming
; landscape
; microclimate
; modeling
; spatial variation
; Cornwall [England]
; England
; Lizard Peninsula
; United Kingdom
; Squamata
英文摘要: The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed ‘microrefugia’. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977–2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to −54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: We thank Michael Ashcroft, Richard Gunton and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on the manuscript and Ray Lawman and Rachel Holder for permission to deploy data loggers on land owned by or managed by the National Trust and Natural England. This research was partly funded by the European Social Fund (09099NCO5), NERC (NE/L00268X/1) and by Natural England.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61181
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Maclean I.M.D.,Suggitt A.J.,Wilson R.J.,et al. Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(1)