DOI: 10.1002/grl.50581
论文题名: Potential seasonal predictability: Comparison between empirical and dynamical model estimates
作者: Delsole T. ; Kumar A. ; Jha B.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8854
EISSN: 1944-8585
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 12 起始页码: 3200
结束页码: 3206
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; ensembles
; potential predictability
; seasonal prediction
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric model
; CFSv2
; ensembles
; potential predictability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal precipitations
; Seasonal prediction
; Single time series
; Atmospheric temperature
; Greenhouse gases
; Sea ice
; Estimation
; air temperature
; atmospheric modeling
; comparative study
; empirical analysis
; ensemble forecasting
; error correction
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; time series analysis
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: Methods for estimating potential seasonal predictability from a single realization of daily data are validated against an ensemble of simulations from an atmospheric model driven by observed sea surface temperature, sea ice extent, and greenhouse gas concentration. The methods give surprisingly good estimates of potential predictability of seasonal precipitation despite the fact that the methods assume Gaussian distributions. For temperature, the methods systematically underestimate weather noise variance over land, often by a factor of 2 or more. This bias can be reduced by taking account of precipitation-induced variability. These conclusions may be model dependent, and hence, confirmation in other models would be of interest. Nevertheless, for the state-of-the-art atmospheric model used in this study, the results strongly support the validity of the single time series approach to estimating potential predictability and enhances our confidence in previous estimates of potential predictability based on observations alone. Key Points The accuracy of potential predictability estimates is quantified A modified estimate of potential predictability is proposed and validated The paper supports observational estimates of potential predictability ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880529762&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50581&partnerID=40&md5=b6c2783f4bfed928bb3ec0492bf8a66f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6118
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Delsole T.,Kumar A.,Jha B.. Potential seasonal predictability: Comparison between empirical and dynamical model estimates[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(12).