DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13475
论文题名: Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world
作者: Nadeau C.P. ; Urban M.C. ; Bridle J.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2017
卷: 23, 期: 1 起始页码: 12
结束页码: 24
语种: 英语
英文关键词: autocorrelation
; grid size
; impact assessment
; spatial resolution
; spatial scaling
; temporal resolution
; trend
; variance
Scopus关键词: Aves
; Mammalia
英文摘要: Accurately predicting biological impacts of climate change is necessary to guide policy. However, the resolution of climate data could be affecting the accuracy of climate change impact assessments. Here, we review the spatial and temporal resolution of climate data used in impact assessments and demonstrate that these resolutions are often too coarse relative to biologically relevant scales. We then develop a framework that partitions climate into three important components: trend, variance, and autocorrelation. We apply this framework to map different global climate regimes and identify where coarse climate data is most and least likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments. We show that impact assessments for many large mammals and birds use climate data with a spatial resolution similar to the biologically relevant area encompassing population dynamics. Conversely, impact assessments for many small mammals, herpetofauna, and plants use climate data with a spatial resolution that is orders of magnitude larger than the area encompassing population dynamics. Most impact assessments also use climate data with a coarse temporal resolution. We suggest that climate data with a coarse spatial resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in climates with high spatial trend and variance (e.g., much of western North and South America) and the least in climates with low spatial trend and variance (e.g., the Great Plains of the USA). Climate data with a coarse temporal resolution is likely to reduce the accuracy of impact assessments the most in the northern half of the northern hemisphere where temporal climatic variance is high. Our framework provides one way to identify where improving the resolution of climate data will have the largest impact on the accuracy of biological predictions under climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Nadeau, C.P.
; Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, United States
; 电子邮件: christopher.nadeau@uconn.edu
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61223
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT, United States; Institute of Biological Risk, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Road, Storrs, CT, United States; School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Nadeau C.P.,Urban M.C.,Bridle J.R.. Coarse climate change projections for species living in a fine-scaled world[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01,23(1)