DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13760
论文题名: The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes, species dispersal and movement barriers
作者: Radinger J. ; Essl F. ; Hölker F. ; Horký P. ; Slavík O. ; Wolter C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2017
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Barriers
; Climate change
; Edge populations
; Habitat shift
; Land use change
; River Elbe
; Species distribution modeling
; Species range shift
英文摘要: The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use-driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species-specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up- vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled "moderate" and "severe" climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller-bodied fishes and to contract for larger-bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller-bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger-bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller-bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61225
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries Berlin Germany; Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria; Department of Zoology and Fisheries Czech University of Life Sciences Prague Prague Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Radinger J.,Essl F.,Hölker F.,et al. The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes, species dispersal and movement barriers[J]. Global Change Biology,2017-01-01