| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50605
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| 论文题名: | Recurrence statistics of great earthquakes |
| 作者: | Ben-Naim E.; Daub E.G.; Johnson P.A.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8858
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| EISSN: | 1944-8589
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 3021
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| 结束页码: | 3025
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | earthquake clustering
; earthquake hazard
; statistical seismology
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| Scopus关键词: | Earthquake clustering
; Earthquake hazard
; Earthquake magnitudes
; Earthquake records
; Process deviations
; Statistical seismologies
; Statistics of extreme values
; Temporal clustering
; Random processes
; Earthquakes
; aftershock
; earthquake magnitude
; earthquake recurrence
; moment tensor
; seismic hazard
; seismology
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| 英文摘要: | We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time, defined as the time between two consecutive earthquakes. We study the variance in the recurrence time and the maximal recurrence time. Using these quantities, we compare the earthquake record with sequences of random events, generated by numerical simulations, while systematically varying the minimal earthquake magnitude Mmin. Our analysis shows that the earthquake record is consistent with a random process for magnitude thresholds 7.0≤bsubesubcirc8. 3, where the number of events is larger. Interestingly, the earthquake record deviates from a random process at magnitude threshold 8.4≤bsubesubcirc8.5, where the number of events is smaller; however, this deviation is not strong enough to conclude that great earthquakes are clustered. Overall, the findings are robust both qualitatively and quantitatively as statistics of extreme values and moment analysis yield remarkably similar results. Key Points For M=7.0-8.3, earthquake record does not show clustering For M=8.4-8.5 intriguing deviations from random process Deviation not strong enough to conclude that great earthquakes are clustered ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880563849&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50605&partnerID=40&md5=be118cbf6ac85498a3963d21aaee2f34
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6122
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87544, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Ben-Naim E.,Daub E.G.,Johnson P.A.. Recurrence statistics of great earthquakes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(12).
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