DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13330
论文题名: Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population
作者: Tavecchia G. ; Tenan S. ; Pradel R. ; Igual J.-M. ; Genovart M. ; Oro D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 12 起始页码: 3960
结束页码: 3966
语种: 英语
英文关键词: capture–recapture
; global climatic indices
; immigration
; population growth rate
; resilience
; shearwater
Scopus关键词: capture method
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate variation
; dispersal
; mark-recapture method
; migratory species
; population structure
; seabird
; Aves
; Calonectris diomedea
; Mammalia
; animal
; bird
; climate
; demography
; population dynamics
; population growth
; Animals
; Birds
; Climate
; Demography
; Population Dynamics
; Population Growth
英文摘要: Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λi, estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρi, a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λi varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρi did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61238
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Population Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès, 21, Esporles, Spain; Sezione Zoologia dei Vertebrati, MUSE – Museo delle Scienze, Corso del Lavoro e della Scienza 3, Trento, Italy; CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE, Montpellier, France
Recommended Citation:
Tavecchia G.,Tenan S.,Pradel R.,et al. Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(12)