| DOI: | 10.1111/gcb.13375
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| 论文题名: | Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century |
| 作者: | Butzin M.; Pörtner H.-O.
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| 刊名: | Global Change Biology
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| ISSN: | 13541013
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 22, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 4162
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| 结束页码: | 4168
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate change
; climate projections
; ecophysiology
; ectotherms
; fish growth
; modelling
; thermal tolerance
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| Scopus关键词: | climate change
; ecophysiology
; ectothermy
; ensemble forecasting
; growth response
; salmonid
; seawater
; temperature tolerance
; twenty first century
; Arctic Ocean
; Barents Sea
; Gadus morhua
; animal
; Atlantic cod
; climate
; climate change
; growth, development and aging
; temperature
; Animals
; Climate
; Climate Change
; Gadus morhua
; Temperature
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| 英文摘要: | Ocean warming may lead to smaller body sizes of marine ectotherms, because metabolic rates increase exponentially with temperature while the capacity of the cardiorespiratory system to match enhanced oxygen demands is limited. Here, we explore the impact of rising sea water temperatures on Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), an economically important fish species. We focus on changes in the temperature-dependent growth potential by a transfer function model combining growth observations with climate model ensemble temperatures. Growth potential is expressed in terms of asymptotic body weight and depends on water temperature. We consider changes between the periods 1985–2004 and 2081–2100, assuming that future sea water temperatures will evolve according to climate projections for IPCC AR5 scenario RCP8.5. Our model projects a response of Atlantic cod to future warming, differentiated according to ocean regions, leading to increases of asymptotic weight in the Barents Sea, while weights are projected to decline at the southern margin of the biogeographic range. Southern spawning areas will disappear due to thermal limitation of spawning stages. These projections match the currently observed biogeographic shifts and the temperature- and oxygen-dependent decline in routine aerobic scope at southern distribution limits. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61247
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: | Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, PO Box 120161, Bremerhaven, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Butzin M.,Pörtner H.-O.. Thermal growth potential of Atlantic cod by the end of the 21st century[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(12)
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