globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13326
论文题名:
A new seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios
作者: Chen M.; Melaas E.K.; Gray J.M.; Friedl M.A.; Richardson A.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:11
起始页码: 3675
结束页码: 3688
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle ; climate change ; Community Land Model ; ecosystem services ; PhenoCam ; phenology ; water
Scopus关键词: broad-leaved forest ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; deciduous forest ; ecosystem modeling ; ecosystem service ; evapotranspiration ; phenology ; seasonal variation ; spring (season) ; carbon ; climate ; forest ; season ; tree ; Carbon ; Climate ; Forests ; Seasons ; Trees
英文摘要: A spring phenology model that combines photoperiod with accumulated heating and chilling to predict spring leaf-out dates is optimized using PhenoCam observations and coupled into the Community Land Model (CLM) 4.5. In head-to-head comparison (using satellite data from 2003 to 2013 for validation) for model grid cells over the Northern Hemisphere deciduous broadleaf forests (5.5 million km2), we found that the revised model substantially outperformed the standard CLM seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel at both coarse (0.9 × 1.25°) and fine (1 km) scales. The revised model also does a better job of representing recent (decadal) phenological trends observed globally by MODIS, as well as long-term trends (1950–2014) in the PEP725 European phenology dataset. Moreover, forward model runs suggested a stronger advancement (up to 11 days) of spring leaf-out by the end of the 21st century for the revised model. Trends toward earlier advancement are predicted for deciduous forests across the whole Northern Hemisphere boreal and temperate deciduous forest region for the revised model, whereas the standard model predicts earlier leaf-out in colder regions, but later leaf-out in warmer regions, and no trend globally. The earlier spring leaf-out predicted by the revised model resulted in enhanced gross primary production (up to 0.6 Pg C yr−1) and evapotranspiration (up to 24 mm yr−1) when results were integrated across the study region. These results suggest that the standard seasonal-deciduous submodel in CLM should be reconsidered, otherwise substantial errors in predictions of key land–atmosphere interactions and feedbacks may result. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation's Marcrosystem Biology (EF-1065029) and LTER (DEB-1237491, DEB-1114804) programs, DOE Regional and Global Climate Modeling DE-SC0016011, and by NASA Grant number NNX14AJ35G. The authors acknowledge Dr. Danica Lombardozzi at NCAR and Dr. Ying Sun at UT Austin for their technical help on running CESM. The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the National Science Foundation. PEP725 data were provided by the members of the PEP725 project. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61257
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 22 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 675 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Chen M.,Melaas E.K.,Gray J.M.,et al. A new seasonal-deciduous spring phenology submodel in the Community Land Model 4.5: impacts on carbon and water cycling under future climate scenarios[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(11)
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