DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13382
论文题名: Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe
作者: Fraga H. ; García de Cortázar Atauri I. ; Malheiro A.C. ; Santos J.A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 11 起始页码: 3774
结束页码: 3788
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; crop modelling
; EURO-CORDEX
; Europe
; grapevine
; representative concentration pathways
; STICS
; viticulture
Scopus关键词: climate change
; modeling
; phenology
; viticulture
; wine industry
; yield
; Europe
; Vitis
; carbon dioxide
; nitrogen
; water
; climate
; climate change
; Europe
; forecasting
; Italy
; theoretical model
; Carbon Dioxide
; Climate
; Climate Change
; Europe
; Forecasting
; Italy
; Models, Theoretical
; Nitrogen
; Water
英文摘要: Viticulture is a key socio-economic sector in Europe. Owing to the strong sensitivity of grapevines to atmospheric factors, climate change may represent an important challenge for this sector. This study analyses viticultural suitability, yield, phenology, and water and nitrogen stress indices in Europe, for present climates (1980–2005) and future (2041–2070) climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). The STICS crop model is coupled with climate, soil and terrain databases, also taking into account CO2 physiological effects, and simulations are validated against observational data sets. A clear agreement between simulated and observed phenology, leaf area index, yield and water and nitrogen stress indices, including the spatial differences throughout Europe, is shown. The projected changes highlight an extension of the climatic suitability for grapevines up to 55°N, which may represent the emergence of new winemaking regions. Despite strong regional heterogeneity, mean phenological timings (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest) are projected to undergo significant advancements (e.g. budburst/harvest can be >1 month earlier), with implications also in the corresponding phenophase intervals. Enhanced dryness throughout Europe is also projected, with severe water stress over several regions in southern regions (e.g. southern Iberia and Italy), locally reducing yield and leaf area. Increased atmospheric CO2 partially offsets dryness effects, promoting yield and leaf area index increases in central/northern Europe. Future biomass changes may lead to modifications in nitrogen demands, with higher stress in northern/central Europe and weaker stress in southern Europe. These findings are critical decision support systems for stakeholders from the European winemaking sector. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 资助项目: Fraga, H.
; Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto DouroPortugal
; 电子邮件: hfraga@utad.pt
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61267
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, Vila Real, Portugal; French National Institute for Agricultural Research, US1116 AgroClim, INRA, Avignon, France
Recommended Citation:
Fraga H.,García de Cortázar Atauri I.,Malheiro A.C.,et al. Modelling climate change impacts on viticultural yield, phenology and stress conditions in Europe[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(11)