DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13368
论文题名: Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland
作者: Skelsey P. ; Cooke D.E.L. ; Lynott J.S. ; Lees A.K.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 11 起始页码: 3724
结束页码: 3738
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; connectivity
; crop disease
; dispersal
; inoculum
; Phytophthora infestans
; potato late blight
; risk assessment
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; agricultural management
; climate change
; disease transmission
; environmental impact
; growth modeling
; inoculation
; potato
; risk assessment
; spatial distribution
; Scotland
; United Kingdom
; Phytophthora infestans
; Solanum tuberosum
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; crop
; Phytophthora infestans
; plant disease
; potato
; risk
; Scotland
; season
; Carbon Dioxide
; Climate Change
; Crops, Agricultural
; Phytophthora infestans
; Plant Diseases
; Risk
; Scotland
; Seasons
; Solanum tuberosum
英文摘要: The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61270
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Skelsey P.,Cooke D.E.L.,Lynott J.S.,et al. Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(11)