DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13302
论文题名: Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature-mediated shifts in optimum lay date
作者: Phillimore A.B. ; Leech D.I. ; Pearce-Higgins J.W. ; Hadfield J.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 10 起始页码: 3259
结束页码: 3272
语种: 英语
英文关键词: citizen science
; climate
; cues
; environmental sensitivity of selection
; local adaptation
; optimum
; phenology
; plasticity
; space for time
Scopus关键词: climate change
; environmental cue
; global change
; local adaptation
; nesting behavior
; passerine
; phenology
; phenotypic plasticity
; United Kingdom
; Aves
; Passeriformes
英文摘要: Projecting the fates of populations under climate change is one of global change biology's foremost challenges. Here, we seek to identify the contributions that temperature-mediated local adaptation and plasticity make to spatial variation in nesting phenology, a phenotypic trait showing strong responses to warming. We apply a mixed modeling framework to a Britain-wide spatiotemporal dataset comprising >100 000 records of first egg dates from four single-brooded passerine bird species. The average temperature during a specific time period (sliding window) strongly predicts spatiotemporal variation in lay date. All four species exhibit phenological plasticity, advancing lay date by 2–5 days °C−1. The initiation of this sliding window is delayed further north, which may be a response to a photoperiod threshold. Using clinal trends in phenology and temperature, we are able to estimate the temperature sensitivity of selection on lay date (B), but our estimates are highly sensitive to the temporal position of the sliding window. If the sliding window is of fixed duration with a start date determined by photoperiod, we find B is tracked by phenotypic plasticity. If, instead, we allow the start and duration of the sliding window to change with latitude, we find plasticity does not track B, although in this case, at odds with theoretical expectations, our estimates of B differ across latitude vs. longitude. We argue that a model combining photoperiod and mean temperature is most consistent with current understanding of phenological cues in passerines, the results from which suggest that each species could respond to projected increases in spring temperatures through plasticity alone. However, our estimates of B require further validation. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61294
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, Norfolk, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Phillimore A.B.,Leech D.I.,Pearce-Higgins J.W.,et al. Passerines may be sufficiently plastic to track temperature-mediated shifts in optimum lay date[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(10)