globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13220
论文题名:
Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion
作者: Chapman D.S.; Makra L.; Albertini R.; Bonini M.; Páldy A.; Rodinkova V.; Šikoparija B.; Weryszko-Chmielewska E.; Bullock J.M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:9
起始页码: 3067
结束页码: 3079
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bioeconomic model ; biosecurity ; colonization ; dispersal ; introduced species ; invasive alien species ; plant health ; trade pathway model
Scopus关键词: angiosperm ; biological invasion ; climate change ; colonization ; dispersal ; international trade ; introduced species ; modeling ; Europe ; Ambrosia ; Ambrosia artemisiifolia
英文摘要: Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
资助项目: DC and JMB were funded by the European Commission under ENV.B2/ETU/2010/0037 and the Natural Environment Research Council (via National Capability funding to the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, project NEC05100). The authors would like to thank the many contributors of ragweed distribution data. In addition to data contributed by the co-authors, ragweed pollen data were kindly provided by Michel Thibaudon, Andreja Kofol Seliger, Barbara Stjepanović, Renata Peternel, Nicoleta Ianovici, Jana Ščevková, Alexander Prikhodko, Elena Severova, Regula Gehrig (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss), Raina Yankova and the managers of the AIA (Italian Association of Aerobiology) pollen monitoring centres: Fabrizio Ottoboni, Susanna Voltolini, Giuseppe Ronchi, Luigi Giovanni Cremonte, Guido Marcer, Anna Bordin, Maria Russo, Alberto Pini, Anna Molinari, Angela Sangiuolo, Augusto Arsieni, Salvatore Circolone, Clara Scippa, Antonio Graziani, Daniele Berra, Elena Chiodini, Vincenzo Patella, Loretta Pace, Consolata Siniscalco, Luisella Reale. We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61312
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

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作者单位: NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Faculty of Agriculture, Institute of Economics and Rural Development, University of Szeged, 6800 Hódmezővásárhely, Andrássy út 15, Szeged, Hungary; Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, University of Parma, Via Gramsci, 14Parma, Italy; Department of Medical Prevention, Public Health, Local Health Authority of Milan 1, Parabiago, Milan, Italy; Department of Aerobiological Monitoring, National Institute of Environmental Health, Gyáli út 2–6, Budapest, Hungary; Vinnitsa National Pirogov Memorial Medical University, Pyrohova St, 56, Vinnitsa, Vinnyts'ka oblast, Ukraine; BioSense Institute - Research Institute for Information Technologies in Biosystems, University of Novi Sad, Zorana Đinđića 1, Novi Sad, Vojvodina, Serbia; Department of Botany, Lublin University of Life Sciences, Akademicka 13, Lublin, Poland; NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Chapman D.S.,Makra L.,Albertini R.,et al. Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(9)
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