DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13291
论文题名: US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective
作者: Liénard J. ; Harrison J. ; Strigul N.
刊名: Global change biology
ISSN: 13652486
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 8 起始页码: 2875
结束页码: 2886
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; drought, shade and waterlogging tolerance indices
; drought-related stress
; forested ecosystems
; tolerance distribution model
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; drought
; ecosystem function
; ecosystem response
; forest ecosystem
; shade tolerance
; waterlogging
; climate
; climate change
; drought
; ecosystem
; forest
; United States
; Climate
; Climate Change
; Droughts
; Ecosystem
; Forests
; United States
; Midwest
; Rocky Mountains
; United States
英文摘要: Although it is widely recognized that climate change will require a major spatial reorganization of forests, our ability to predict exactly how and where forest characteristics and distributions will change has been rather limited. Current efforts to predict future distribution of forested ecosystems as a function of climate include species distribution models (for fine-scale predictions) and potential vegetation climate envelope models (for coarse-grained, large-scale predictions). Here, we develop and apply an intermediate approach wherein we use stand-level tolerances of environmental stressors to understand forest distributions and vulnerabilities to anticipated climate change. In contrast to other existing models, this approach can be applied at a continental scale while maintaining a direct link to ecologically relevant, climate-related stressors. We first demonstrate that shade, drought, and waterlogging tolerances of forest stands are strongly correlated with climate and edaphic conditions in the conterminous United States. This discovery allows the development of a tolerance distribution model (TDM), a novel quantitative tool to assess landscape level impacts of climate change. We then focus on evaluating the implications of the drought TDM. Using an ensemble of 17 climate change models to drive this TDM, we estimate that 18% of US ecosystems are vulnerable to drought-related stress over the coming century. Vulnerable areas include mostly the Midwest United States and Northeast United States, as well as high-elevation areas of the Rocky Mountains. We also infer stress incurred by shifting climate should create an opening for the establishment of forest types not currently seen in the conterminous United States. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61328
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Washington State University Vancouver, 14204 NE Salmon Creek Ave, Vancouver, WA, 98686, USA; School of the Environment, Washington State University Vancouver, 14204 NE Salmon Creek Ave, Vancouver, WA, 98686, USA
Recommended Citation:
Liénard J.,Harrison J.,Strigul N.. US forest response to projected climate-related stress: a tolerance perspective[J]. Global change biology,2016-01-01,22(8)