DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13163
论文题名: Quantifying variety-specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change
作者: Tack J. ; Barkley A. ; Rife T.W. ; Poland J.A. ; Nalley L.L.
刊名: Global change biology
ISSN: 13652486
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 8 起始页码: 2904
结束页码: 2912
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptation
; agriculture
; climate change
; genetics
; global warming
; wheat
; yield
Scopus关键词: acclimation
; agriculture
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; genetics
; global warming
; heating
; wheat
; acclimatization
; climate change
; growth, development and aging
; heat
; season
; wheat
; Acclimatization
; Climate Change
; Hot Temperature
; Seasons
; Triticum
; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remains relatively unstudied due to limited data and the complex genetic basis of heat tolerance. Here, we provide a novel econometric approach that combines field-trial data with a genetic cluster mapping to group wheat varieties and estimate a separate extreme heat impact (temperatures over 34 °C) across 24 clusters spanning 197 varieties. We find a wide range of heterogeneous heat resistance and a trade-off between average yield and resistance. Results suggest that recently released varieties are less heat resistant than older varieties, a pattern that also holds for on-farm varieties. Currently released - but not yet adopted - varieties do not offer improved resistance relative to varieties currently grown on farm. Our findings suggest that warming impacts could be significantly reduced through advances in wheat breeding and/or adoption decisions by producers. However, current adaptation-through-adoption potential is limited under a 1 °C warming scenario as increased heat resistance cannot be achieved without a reduction in average yields. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61341
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS, 39762, USA; Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; Interdepartmental Genetics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; Department of Plant Pathology, Wheat Genetics Resource Center, Kansas State University, 4024 Throckmorton Hall, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; Department of Agronomy, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, 66506, USA; Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, 72701, USA
Recommended Citation:
Tack J.,Barkley A.,Rife T.W.,et al. Quantifying variety-specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change[J]. Global change biology,2016-01-01,22(8)