globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13272
论文题名:
Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes
作者: Titeux N.; Henle K.; Mihoub J.-B.; Regos A.; Geijzendorffer I.R.; Cramer W.; Verburg P.H.; Brotons L.
刊名: Global change biology
ISSN: 13652486
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期:7
起始页码: 2505
结束页码: 2515
语种: 英语
英文关键词: biodiversity projections ; climate change ; ecological forecasting ; land system science ; land-cover change ; predictive models ; species distribution models ; storylines
Scopus关键词: biodiversity ; climate change ; climate effect ; habitat loss ; land cover ; land use change ; spatial distribution ; biodiversity ; climate change ; ecosystem ; forecasting ; theoretical model ; Biodiversity ; Climate Change ; Ecosystem ; Forecasting ; Models, Theoretical
英文摘要: Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61370
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: European Bird Census Council (EBCC) and Forest Sciences Centre of Catalonia (CEMFOR-CTFC), InForest Joint Research Unit (CSIC-CTFC-CREAF), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys km 2, 25280, Solsona, Spain; Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), Earth and Life Institute, Croix du Sud 2, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain; Department of Conservation Biology, UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318, Leipzig, Germany; Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CESCO, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Paris, France; Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Bâtiment Villemin, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, BP 80, 13545, Aix-en-Provence Cedex 04, France; Department of Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), 08193, Cerdanyola del Vallés, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Titeux N.,Henle K.,Mihoub J.-B.,et al. Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes[J]. Global change biology,2016-01-01,22(7)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Titeux N.]'s Articles
[Henle K.]'s Articles
[Mihoub J.-B.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Titeux N.]'s Articles
[Henle K.]'s Articles
[Mihoub J.-B.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Titeux N.]‘s Articles
[Henle K.]‘s Articles
[Mihoub J.-B.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.