DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13217
论文题名: Constraining future terrestrial carbon cycle projections using observation-based water and carbon flux estimates
作者: Mystakidis S. ; Davin E.L. ; Gruber N. ; Seneviratne S.I.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 6 起始页码: 2198
结束页码: 2215
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5 projections
; Emergent constraints
; Evaluation
; Evapotranspiration
; Gross primary productivity
; Net biome productivity
; Terrestrial carbon cycle
Scopus关键词: biome
; biosphere
; carbon cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate modeling
; evapotranspiration
; terrestrial environment
; carbon dioxide
; water
; carbon cycle
; climate change
; computer simulation
; ecosystem
; evapotranspiration
; theoretical model
; uncertainty
; Carbon Cycle
; Carbon Dioxide
; Climate Change
; Computer Simulation
; Ecosystem
; Models, Theoretical
; Plant Transpiration
; Uncertainty
; Water
英文摘要: The terrestrial biosphere is currently acting as a sink for about a third of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the future fate of this sink in the coming decades is very uncertain, as current earth system models (ESMs) simulate diverging responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to upcoming climate change. Here, we use observation-based constraints of water and carbon fluxes to reduce uncertainties in the projected terrestrial carbon cycle response derived from simulations of ESMs conducted as part of the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find in the ESMs a clear linear relationship between present-day evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP), as well as between these present-day fluxes and projected changes in GPP, thus providing an emergent constraint on projected GPP. Constraining the ESMs based on their ability to simulate present-day ET and GPP leads to a substantial decrease in the projected GPP and to a ca. 50% reduction in the associated model spread in GPP by the end of the century. Given the strong correlation between projected changes in GPP and in NBP in the ESMs, applying the constraints on net biome productivity (NBP) reduces the model spread in the projected land sink by more than 30% by 2100. Moreover, the projected decline in the land sink is at least doubled in the constrained ensembles and the probability that the terrestrial biosphere is turned into a net carbon source by the end of the century is strongly increased. This indicates that the decline in the future land carbon uptake might be stronger than previously thought, which would have important implications for the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration and for future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61382
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Center for Climate Systems Modeling, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland; Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Mystakidis S.,Davin E.L.,Gruber N.,et al. Constraining future terrestrial carbon cycle projections using observation-based water and carbon flux estimates[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(6)