DOI: 10.1002/grl.50557
论文题名: Dependence of the climate prediction skill on spatiotemporal scales: Internal versus radiatively-forced contribution
作者: Volpi D. ; Doblas-Reyes F.J. ; García-Serrano J. ; Guemas V.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8875
EISSN: 1944-8606
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 12 起始页码: 3213
结束页码: 3219
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal prediction
; ensemble
; initialization
; interannual
; perturbed parameters
; regional scale
Scopus关键词: Decadal predictions
; ensemble
; initialization
; Interannual
; perturbed parameters
; Regional scale
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Tropics
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; Hadley cell
; perturbation
; radiative forcing
; Southern Hemisphere
; spatiotemporal analysis
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: This article aims at quantifying the improvement in climate prediction skill as a function of temporal (from monthly to decadal) and spatial scales (from grid point to global) when initializing a perturbed parameter ensemble of the Hadley Centre Climate Model. The focus is on near-surface temperature and precipitation in the Tropical band, the Northern and Southern hemispheres. For temperature, the forecast system reproduces the dominant impact of the external forcing at global spatial scale and at decadal time scales. There are significant improvements with initialization for the first 40 forecast months in the global and tropical domains. In the Northern (Southern) hemisphere, the initialization increases the skill in the first 12 (20) months on regional but not hemispheric scales. The initialization has a stronger impact in the model variants with a weaker global-mean temperature trend. For precipitation, the initialization corrects the negative correlation found at global and tropical scales. Key Points Initialization improves temperature skill for 40 months from local to global scale Initialization improves the land precipitation skill on regional scale The externally forced signal dominates global and decadal temperature skill ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880552058&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50557&partnerID=40&md5=7956f640dddbc776853b4c66b1b98a6b
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6139
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institut Català de Ciències Del Clima (IC3), Doctor Trueta 203, Barcelona, 08005, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Volpi D.,Doblas-Reyes F.J.,García-Serrano J.,et al. Dependence of the climate prediction skill on spatiotemporal scales: Internal versus radiatively-forced contribution[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(12).