DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13190
论文题名: Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques
作者: Marshall A.M. ; Bigg G.R. ; van Leeuwen S.M. ; Pinnegar J.K. ; Wei H.-L. ; Webb T.J. ; Blanchard J.L.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 5 起始页码: 1755
结束页码: 1768
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biophysics
; Body size
; Climate change
; Demersal fisheries
; Empirical orthogonal functions
; Marine environmental change
; NARMAX modelling
; North Sea
; Size-based indicators
; Spatial heterogeneity
Scopus关键词: body size
; climate change
; community response
; community structure
; demersal fish
; environmental change
; fish
; marine ecosystem
; net primary production
; water temperature
; Arctic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; North Sea
; Norwegian Sea
; Scotland
; United Kingdom
; animal
; biodiversity
; biological model
; environmental protection
; fish
; fishery
; North Sea
; physiology
; procedures
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Fisheries
; Fishes
; Models, Biological
; North Sea
英文摘要: To understand changes in ecosystems, the appropriate scale at which to study them must be determined. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover thousands of square kilometres and are a useful classification scheme for ecosystem monitoring and assessment. However, averaging across LMEs may obscure intricate dynamics within. The purpose of this study is to mathematically determine local and regional patterns of ecological change within an LME using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). After using EOFs to define regions with distinct patterns of change, a statistical model originating from control theory is applied (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average with eXogenous input - NARMAX) to assess potential drivers of change within these regions. We have selected spatial data sets (0.5° latitude × 1°longitude) of fish abundance from North Sea fisheries research surveys (spanning 1980-2008) as well as of temperature, oxygen, net primary production and a fishing pressure proxy, to which we apply the EOF and NARMAX methods. Two regions showed significant changes since 1980: the central North Sea displayed a decrease in community size structure which the NARMAX model suggested was linked to changes in fishing; and the Norwegian trench region displayed an increase in community size structure which, as indicated by NARMAX results, was primarily linked to changes in sea-bottom temperature. These regions were compared to an area of no change along the eastern Scottish coast where the model determined the community size structure was most strongly associated to net primary production. This study highlights the multifaceted effects of environmental change and fishing pressures in different regions of the North Sea. Furthermore, by highlighting this spatial heterogeneity in community size structure change, important local spatial dynamics are often overlooked when the North Sea is considered as a broad-scale, homogeneous ecosystem (as normally is the case within the political Marine Strategy Framework Directive). © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61418
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Department of Automatic Control and Systems Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Marshall A.M.,Bigg G.R.,van Leeuwen S.M.,et al. Quantifying heterogeneous responses of fish community size structure using novel combined statistical techniques[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(5)