DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13159
论文题名: Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: Fractional effects from physical and physiological factors
作者: Kendall M.S. ; Poti M. ; Karnauskas K.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 4 起始页码: 1532
结束页码: 1547
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Caroline Archipelago
; Connectivity
; Coral reef
; Larvae
; Marianas
; Micronesia
; Pelagic larval duration
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; coral reef
; ecosystem resilience
; larval transport
; oceanic circulation
; pelagic environment
; physiological response
; sea surface temperature
; Caroline Islands
; Mariana Islands
; Anthozoa
; animal
; Anthozoa
; climate change
; coral reef
; island (geological)
; larva
; Pacific Ocean
; temperature
; theoretical model
; water flow
; Animals
; Anthozoa
; Climate Change
; Coral Reefs
; Islands
; Larva
; Models, Theoretical
; Pacific Ocean
; Temperature
; Water Movements
英文摘要: Changes in larval import, export, and self-seeding will affect the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Climate change will alter the ocean currents that transport larvae and also increase sea surface temperatures (SST), hastening development, and shortening larval durations. Here, we use transport simulations to estimate future larval connectivity due to: (1) physical transport of larvae from altered circulation alone, and (2) the combined effects of altered currents plus physiological response to warming. Virtual larvae from islands throughout Micronesia were moved according to present-day and future ocean circulation models. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) spanning 2004-2012 represented present-day currents. For future currents, we altered HYCOM using analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. Based on the NCAR model, regional SST is estimated to rise 2.74 °C which corresponds to a ~17% decline in larval duration for some taxa. This reduction was the basis for a separate set of simulations. Results predict an increase in self-seeding in 100 years such that 62-76% of islands experienced increased self-seeding, there was an average domainwide increase of ~1-3% points in self-seeding, and increases of up to 25% points for several individual islands. When changed currents alone were considered, approximately half (i.e., random) of all island pairs experienced decreased connectivity but when reduced PLD was added as an effect, ~65% of connections were weakened. Orientation of archipelagos relative to currents determined the directional bias in connectivity changes. There was no universal relationship between climate change and connectivity applicable to all taxa and settings. Islands that presently export large numbers of larvae but that also maintain or enhance this role into the future should be the focus of conservation measures that promote long-term resilience of larval supply. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61425
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: NOAA/NCCOS/CCMA/Biogeography Branch, Silver Spring, MD, United States; Consolidated Safety Services-Dynamac, Inc., Fairfax, VA, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kendall M.S.,Poti M.,Karnauskas K.B.. Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: Fractional effects from physical and physiological factors[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(4)