DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13206
论文题名: Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing
作者: Sullivan M.J.P. ; A.Thomsen M. ; Suttle K.B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 4 起始页码: 1655
结束页码: 1665
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Context
; Correlation
; Extrapolation
; Precipitation
; Prediction
; Time series
; Trophic level
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate forcing
; ecosystem response
; grassland
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; rainfall
; time series analysis
; timescale
; trophic level
; Invertebrata
; rain
; animal
; biodiversity
; biomass
; California
; climate change
; grassland
; herbivory
; invertebrate
; plant development
; population density
; season
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Biomass
; California
; Climate Change
; Grassland
; Herbivory
; Invertebrates
; Plant Development
; Population Density
; Rain
; Seasons
英文摘要: Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61432
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin, La Crosse, WI, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sullivan M.J.P.,A.Thomsen M.,Suttle K.B.. Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(4)