DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13183
论文题名: Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages
作者: Radinger J. ; Hölker F. ; Horký P. ; Slavík O. ; Dendoncker N. ; Wolter C.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 4 起始页码: 1505
结束页码: 1522
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antagonism
; Climate change
; Fish diversity
; Land use change
; Multiple pressures
; River catchment
; River Elbe
; Synergism
Scopus关键词: antagonism
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; community composition
; ecosystem response
; land use change
; river system
; spatial distribution
; species diversity
; synergism
; Elbe River
; animal
; biodiversity
; climate change
; environmental protection
; Europe
; fish
; river
; theoretical model
; Animals
; Biodiversity
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Europe
; Fishes
; Models, Theoretical
; Rivers
英文摘要: River ecosystems are threatened by future changes in land use and climatic conditions. However, little is known of the influence of interactions of these two dominant global drivers of change on ecosystems. Does the interaction amplify (synergistic interaction) or buffer (antagonistic interaction) the impacts and does their interaction effect differ in magnitude, direction and spatial extent compared to single independent pressures. In this study, we model the impact of single and interacting effects of land use and climate change on the spatial distribution of 33 fish species in the Elbe River. The varying effects were modeled using step-wise boosted regression trees based on 250 m raster grid cells. Species-specific models were built for both 'moderate' and 'extreme' future land use and climate change scenarios to assess synergistic, additive and antagonistic interaction effects on species losses, species gains and diversity indices and to quantify their spatial distribution within the Elbe River network. Our results revealed species richness is predicted to increase by 0.7-2.9 species by 2050 across the entire river network. Changes in species richness are likely to be spatially variable with significant changes predicted for 56-85% of the river network. Antagonistic interactions would dominate species losses and gains in up to 75% of the river network. In contrast, synergistic and additive effects would occur in only 20% and 16% of the river network, respectively. The magnitude of the interaction was negatively correlated with the magnitudes of the single independent effects of land use and climate change. Evidence is provided to show that future land use and climate change effects are highly interactive resulting in species range shifts that would be spatially variable in size and characteristic. These findings emphasize the importance of adaptive river management and the design of spatially connected conservation areas to compensate for these high species turnovers and range shifts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61448
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Müggelseedamm 310, Berlin, Germany; Department of Zoology and Fisheries, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Praha 6 - Suchdol, Czech Republic; Département de Géographie, Université de Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Radinger J.,Hölker F.,Horký P.,et al. Synergistic and antagonistic interactions of future land use and climate change on river fish assemblages[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(4)